For the photovoltaic industry with unfavorable export and overcapacity, this is just a bailout move. Zhou Dadi, director of the Energy Development Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, told reporters in an interview that the goal is a huge challenge and it is very doubtful that this slogan is aimed at setting targets. Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economic Research Center at Xiamen University, also believes that this goal will test the strength and speed of government subsidies. In addition, since China's photovoltaic industry has a production capacity of 40 million kilowatts, even if the target is achieved, there are still 30 million kilowatts of production capacity that need to find their own way out and are expected to eliminate a group of them.
As for shale gas, due to the start of last year, the interviewees all thought that large-scale mining still needs time, in addition to the terminal subsidies that have already been introduced, natural gas price reform and pipe network system issues still need to keep up.
30 trillion cubic meters of shale gas to be treated
The 2013 National Energy Work Conference held on January 7 proposed that this year's national energy system will focus on eight areas. The first of these proposed the development of unconventional oil and gas resources such as shale gas and coalbed methane.
The development of shale gas in China started from last year, and the bidding has been carried out for two rounds. According to statistics, the output of shale gas in the United States reached 130 billion cubic meters, accounting for more than 8% of the total natural gas. The shale gas resources in China's major basins and regions are approximately 15 trillion to 30 trillion cubic meters, roughly the same as the United Statesâ€™ 28.3 trillion cubic meters, and have broad prospects.
However, Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economic Research Center at Xiamen University, told reporters that as of today, shale gas is a fairly advanced mineral species worldwide. Except for China, the world is only mining in the United States and Canada. At present, commercial mining in Canada is still in its infancy, and China has not been mined since its launch last year.
And from the results of the tender, the central coal and power companies, as well as local energy groups and shale gas platform companies, are mostly private enterprises. UBS Securities analyst Yan Yuna reminded that if most local energy groups and central enterprises eventually obtain development rights, their investment commitments may not be punished if they are not implemented, thereby delaying the development process. This is also the history of CBM development in the past.
How to do? As far as policies are concerned, terminal subsidies have been introduced during the two rounds of tenders last year, and private and foreign-funded enterprises are allowed to participate in the development. Lin Boqiang predicts that more support measures will be introduced this year. â€œThe key is to make mining profitable. Technology and equipment investment will all keep up. New tenders are expected this year, and natural gas price reform will advance,â€ Lin Boqiang analyzed. "But the pipeline network is currently dominated by PetroChina and Sinopec. If it does not carry out institutional reforms, it will be difficult to achieve a non-discriminatory pipeline." He emphasized that shale gas development should allow private enterprises and other state-owned enterprises and foreign capital to enter, and diversification is also central. In order to accelerate progress.
â€œThe development of shale gas is not simple. How to determine the geological conditions, how to grasp and introduce the technology, how to organize the project, these must be seriously resolved, and urgent.â€ Zhou Dadi, director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said in an interview with a reporter from Nandu. The basic policy for encouraging the development of shale gas is already available. The next step should be to solve the problem and then introduce measures to solve it."
Regarding the amount of exploitation, China's 12th Five-Year Plan proposes that the amount of shale gas exploitation by 2015 will reach 6.5 billion cubic meters. "It should be no problem to achieve this goal," Lin Boqiang analyzed and is expected to be mined in the next two years, but it will still take time to really catch up with the United States. "The United States has spent 10 years, and even if China is faster, it will take five to six years."
Photovoltaic installed capacity increases by 10 million kilowatts per year
In addition to shale gas, the PV installation target put forward at this year's Energy Work Conference attracted a lot of attention. The National Energy Administration announced that it will vigorously develop distributed photovoltaic power generation this year and proposed to add 21 million kilowatts of hydropower capacity, 18 million kilowatts of wind power capacity, and 10 million kilowatts of photovoltaic power generation capacity.
It is worth noting that, in 2011, China's installed photovoltaic power capacity reached 3 million kilowatts. In 2012, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation increased to 7 million kilowatts. In 2013, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation was 10 million kilowatts, which is the newly installed capacity in 2012. 2.5 Times.
â€œThis goal will be very tired and difficult to achieve.â€ Zhou Dadi, director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, told reporters in an interview that the goal is a huge challenge, and it is very doubtful that this slogan is aimed at setting targets. He analyzed that the newly installed capacity is 10 million kilowatts. If a centralized photovoltaic power station is built, it needs to cover hundreds or even thousands of power plants. If it is distributed photovoltaic power generation, more power plants should be built.
"It was only 4 million last year. It is really difficult to add 10 million kilowatts this year." Lin Boqiang told reporters, "This will test the intensity and speed of government subsidies. Subsidies can only be realized through fiscal or on-grid tariff increases," he said. At present, the cost of photovoltaic power generation is still higher than that of hydropower, thermal power and nuclear power. The development of the photovoltaic industry in all countries in the world, including China, depends on government subsidies.
Two-thirds of the photovoltaic capacity is still surplus
One of the obvious reasons for supporting the photovoltaic industry so vigorously is that China's photovoltaic industry exports are being chased and intercepted, so the industry's installation target this year is seen as a â€œrescueâ€ move. Lin Boqiang analyzed that in the long run, solar energy will play an important role in the development of clean energy in the future, and the photovoltaic industry will still be an increasing industry. Chinaâ€™s photovoltaic industry is already the worldâ€™s largest in terms of scale. This size-advantageous government does not want to lose. It just has to solve the problem of disorderly development in the previous period. Lin Boqiang predicts that in addition to supplementing external demand with domestic demand, it is expected that the government will introduce more supportive policies, such as advocating building energy conservation.
In spite of this, the photovoltaic industry will still lose a batch. Lin Boqiang analyzed that currently China's photovoltaic industry has a production capacity of 40 million kilowatts, which means that even if the industry stops expanding, this year's 10 million of them will all be launched, and 30 million kilowatts of production capacity will need to find their own way, which is bound to eliminate a group; and The profit of a company that survives will also be thin.
"The PV industry is already overcapacity. Even if it is salvaged, two-thirds of them cannot be used. Not to mention blind expansion." Zhou Dadi reminded, "Before this industrial owner made exports, now he changed domestic demand, whether technical services and products are correct. There are problems with the road." He believes that the merger and elimination will benefit the development of the entire industry.
If this year's target is achieved, it means that China is only one step away from achieving the target of installing 21 million kilowatts of photovoltaic power generation nationwide by 2015. Meng Xianyi, deputy director of the China Renewable Energy Society, once stated that senior government officials are considering increasing China's installed capacity for photovoltaic power generation in 2015 to 40 million kilowatts to support domestic solar energy companies.
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